It's sometimes too EZ to forget AZ
We've sensed a growing frustration with some pro-gay Arizonans regarding the way their proposed marriage ban is getting lost in the mix. And their frustrations are not misplaced, since it's true that California, with its currently legal status, and Florida, with its role as a prominent swing state, have gotten more attention. FL and especially CA have been the "sexier" fights in this election season.
So what can we do about that? Well, for starters, we're gonna drink some Arizona tea and go to buy some Arizona jeans at J.C. Penney's we want to direct you over to Box Turtle Bulletin, the site of proud gay Arizonan Jim Burroway. Today Jim is featuring a passionate plea for folks to direct some time, focus, and, most importantly, funds towards voting no (again) on this cruel and discriminatory ban. Get ye' self over there:
Arizona Needs Your Help [Box Turtle Bulletin]
Here is great comment on PHB from Arizona Dave...watch their AD it is good!
Let's not be intimidated or discouraged!
The fact that the proponents of Prop 102 have raised almost $7 million seems daunting, until you peel back a couple layers of the onion.
According to an estimate by their own spokesperson, 80-90% of their donations have come from Mormons who, as in California, have received a directive from their presidency in Salt Lake City to contribute all of the effort and means necessary to defeat this. Mormons make up about 4% of the population of Arizona. This hardly qualifies as "broad-based support."
Second, they can raise all the money they want, but there is no productive way for them to spend it all. You just don't need that much money to run a ballot initiative campaign in a state the size of Arizona.
A study of every ballot initiative that has taken place in Arizona since statehood shows that a measure needs at least 60% Yes support at the start of the campaign season in order to still have 50%+1 on election day, as long as there was organized opposition present. At this time two years ago, the Yes side had 57%. By election day, only 48% voted yes. The fact that there is only 49% Yes support now, and the "Vote No Again" commercials haven't started airing yet (they start Monday, Oct 6) bodes very well for us.
We have a very effective, engaging, and memorable "Vote No Again" commercial that you can see at http://www.aztogether.org/media. Their commercial is saccharine and flaccid - it will give their base warm fuzzies but has no message for undecided or No voters. When the No message gets out, we'll see the 20% drop in support characteristic of every other contested initiative.
Arizona Together still needs donations to get the commercial on the air more times during the last few days leading up to the elections. All the big money has gone to California. Please help us out at http://www.aztogether.org/donate.
The only way Prop 102 will pass is if we allow ourselves to be intimidated by their fundraising, do nothing, and remain silent. We have a strong, effective No message, and when it is heard, we will win.
by: ArizonaDave @ Fri Oct 03, 2008 at 12:39:58 PM CDT
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Posted by: LOrion | Oct 3, 2008 4:39:21 PMcomments powered by Disqus