'10: No sure indication that we'll see our vindication
On the question of marriage, would we win in California if we hit the 2010 voting booths? Well, a recently released leaked poll that was commissioned by our side suggests a tough fight:
Overall, the [Polling 4 Equality-commissioned poll] shows that California is split down the middle when it comes to same-sex marriage, with 47 percent in favor and 48 opposed. Those figures mirror other statewide polls that have been done since last fall's election, suggesting that many voters' minds are made up on the issue and the percentage of persuadable voters is very small, about 5 percent, Binder said Sunday during an informal news conference after the closed session.
The poll also shows the marriage equality side doing better in 2012 than in 2010.
Press kicked out of summit over poll [BAR]
But hey, look on the bright side: At least it wouldn't again devolve into a multi-million dollar fight in which good and decent couples are forced to defend their love against fear-mongery exploitation of children and the "threat" that gays supposedly pose to the same.
Oh wait a minute, what's that? Yes, it totally would play out in such a way? This fight will always be grossly unfair (and costly) as long as tax-paying citizens are forced to beg their fellow citizens for basic equality, considering that a portion of those same citizens have made it a life's mission to use their personal religious views to hurt others' civil freedom? And whether it's in 2010 or 2012, the whole thing we'll be thoroughly dehumanizing to those humans who just so happen to be LGBT?
Oh. God, this game is disgusting.
We can hope the following on 2010:
-Get at least 3/5 of the "undecided" in our side.
-Gather as much support as possible from first-time voters.
-Since those aren't presidential elections, many might not bother showing up at the polls, so we have to make sure EVERYONE pro-equality votes.
-Expect that before November of the next year, a considerable number of bigoted old coots have kicked the bucket.
Posted by: ---- | Jun 5, 2009 11:16:54 AM
I don't think we should be in a rush to put our fundamental rights up for an American Idol style vote. What happens when we lose, which is likely? Then what? Try again the next year? There's something kind of sick about having to beg our fellow citizens for our rights.
I wish we'd instead put our efforts into pressuring Obama to repeal DOMA, so we can receive federal benefits. The rest will follow. But there are a lot of older gays and lesbians who need those federal benefits NOW, not ten years from now.
Posted by: K2 | Jun 5, 2009 11:39:32 AM
Those Mormon families who spent $50,000 to take away my rights don't have that money to donate to bigotry next year no matter what the Mormon church says...by 2012 they'll have alittle more....Go now to the polls.
Posted by: Lucy | Jun 5, 2009 12:51:00 PM
The truth is, polls were showing this 47/47 or 48/47 type split for the last 3 or 4 years running. Some of the Field and PPP polls done during the run-up to the election were basically faulty. The California public simply hasn't moved that much on this issue. Oh, and ALL the undecideds traditionally break for the opposition.
Posted by: Bruno | Jun 5, 2009 2:55:26 PM
My proposal: Go at 2010. Spend minimal money - only enough to financially inconvenience California Mormons.
If we lose, go at 2012. And 2014. And 2016. And keep repeating the question until voters realize that we aren't going away and we will never, EVER, settle for second class citizenship.
Posted by: Timothy Kincaid | Jun 5, 2009 4:33:00 PM
Gays will NEVER be allowed to marry in California! The so-called polls you referred to are in no way that close. You will recall that on last year right up to the election, many polls had gays winning, but of course, we all know the results! furthermore, you always have to remember the people who are not going to tell the truth about their "real" feelings concerning same sex unions for fear of retaliation.
The bottom line is America is a Middle-Right leaning Country, and in all 30 States where there have been voting on this issue, all 30 States have voted to ban same sex unions! In November 4 more "Bible Belt" States are schedule to vote to change their Constitutions, and I have absolutely no doubt that all 4 States will ban gay unions!
Posted by: Wayne | Jun 7, 2009 1:10:26 AM
Wayne, you may very well be right. And, in every case where our basic civil rights have been put up to a popular vote, we have lost. And, polls are notoriously bad at predicting the outcome of an election. But, all of those polls have a margin of error, and the results of elections generally do come in somewhere within that margin.
But, the one thing that we do have going for us is that the only real demographic that was persuaded in large enough numbers by the lying liars' lies about Prop H8, was the over 65 crowd. And, while we never revel in the demise of the political constituencies that oppose us, especially when that demise is the result of expiration due to the complications of old age, it is nonetheless a simple fact of life that most of those who oppose us the most vehemently, won't be around much longer.
And the younger crowd, those who are growing up to replace them, they overwhelmingly support us. I read a statistic a while back that said: attrition (due to death) claims as many as 2% to 3% of the over 65 population every year. And, they are replaced with much more open minded folks.
So, while it is possible that you may be correct, it just doesn't seem very likely.
Posted by: Dick Mills | Jun 7, 2009 2:21:56 PMcomments powered by Disqus