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05/14/2012

NOM thrilled that its 'no marriage, no C.U.' base is greatly outsized (and slipping more every day)

by Jeremy Hooper

In what world are these numbers good for NOM?

Screen Shot 2012-05-14 At 1.16.31 Pm
[SOURCE: NOM Blog]

Reminder: NOM is adamantly opposed to civil unions. Yes, NOM played a ridiculous game of pretend in New Hampshire, as they worked (unsuccessfully) to repeal marriage with a supposed "compromise." But the organization is on clear record opposing civil unions. We saw this again last week in North Carolina, where the organization aggressively championed that sweepingly discriminatory ban on marriage, civil unions, and domestic partnerships.

So that being the truth, the above numbers put support for the NOM "no marriage, no C.U." position at just 33%. It's completely illogical to believe that the "form civil unions" camp is going to tend, over time, more towards the "no legal recognition" view. Some will, sure. But why would the greater majority go from supporting same-sex couples' civil partnerships to full-on resistance to any and every relational structure? That goes against every trend we know about this debate! We know that the much more prevalent pattern is for people to stop at civil unions until they learn more about that system's inadequacies. Then, after an education about the untenability that is separate-and-unequal, these folks go over to marriage equality.

The only majority figure in the above polling is for Democrats in favor of full equality. The 49% of "no legal recognition" Republicans is the NOM base, which the org. desperately wants to hold onto. This is certainly the crowd they will hold onto the most over the next few years. But will NOM grow both that contingent and the other "no" figures, here in a changing country that's living with (and more fully understanding) the benign reality of same-sex marriage every single day? No, not unless NOM's time machine plans are further along than my intel tells me they are.

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