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10/01/2009
The chance for bias to numb us, by the numbers
Will Maine be the first U.S. state to stave off the unfortunate, unprincipled, unrighteous, un-American effects of rolling back civil liberties via a tyrannical majority vote? Numbers genius Nate Silver is cautiously optimistic:
Throw Maine's numbers into the model, and we come up with an estimated level of support for the ban of 43.5 percent, with 56.5 percent opposed. In other words, the model's prediction is that the ban will fail. The standard error of the forecast (not the margin of error, which is larger) is 5.2 points. This implies that the marriage ban only has about an 11 percent chance of passing.
Analysis: Gay Marriage Ban is Underdog in Maine [FiveThirtyEight]
After weighing all the factors (an off-year election, the fact that the vote would veto the legislative action and not put an amendment in the constitution, etc.) Nate puts our side's chances at about 3-1.
But that's of course just for this one particular referendum. When it comes to the pro-equality side's chances of ultimately prevailing, the odds are more like Duh-Inevitable. But it's determination that will get us there much faster than complacency, and it's Maine that will turn the tide faster than anything to come before it.
Your thoughts
We can cross our fingers.. but he didn't do so well on the Academy Awards predictions..
Posted by: Dick Mills | Oct 1, 2009 11:40:49 PM
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