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11/05/2014
The 2014 midterms
A few things to remember:
1. The sixth year election is typically tough for the incumbent president. In 1986, the Democrats won eight seats and retook the Senate from the Reagan-led GOP. In 2006, the electorate resoundingly repudiated Pres. Bush by putting Democrats in charge of basically everything on the state and federal level. Through that lens, last night could've been worse for the presidential party.
2. Turnout was terrible, as to be sadly expected (what the f**k is it going to take to get Americans to care?!). Unfortunately, low turnout is always bad for Democrats, since the people who are more likely to not show up are core constituencies. The highly motivated "send a message to the incumbent president" crowd does show up in these kinds of years.
3. Even so, many of the margins were quite narrow. Higher turnout, like that of a presidential year, would've changed things.
4. The electoral map and demographics are still terrible for the GOP on a national scale. 2016 is as tough of a haul for the GOP today as it ever was.
5. Over the next two years, the conservative agenda is going to be on full blast. The American public is going to see, hear, and process what that looks like. What that means. That could be good for those who have other ideas about how to bring progress to this country. It could be a much better messaging opportunity for 2016 candidates than the past few years of gridlock could provide.
6. Thirty-four US Senate seats are in contention in 2016, with a whopping twenty-four of them currently held by Republicans. Things can change, and quickly.
7. Even with this Republican electorate, exit polling still showed plurality support for marriage equality, and the "under 30" breakdown showed a twelve point shift in support from 2010 to 2014. We've won that one, even if we must still keep fighting.
Yes, there is a fight ahead. Yes, there is some scary stuff that is and could continue to happen at the state level (thirty-two states, including blue ones, now have GOP governors). And yes, there is little to no chance that pro-LGBT laws like ENDA are going to make it to the President's desk. Lame.
But don't duck. Now is the time to be even more focused and committed than before. Oh, and to unapologetically shame people who don't vote (kidding; kind of).
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